Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
9
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 4 | 35 | 9 | 403 |
| Comments | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 183 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 4 | 13 | 5 | 81 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
5%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time update
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Assasination
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Global trade war escalates, or US pulls out of NATO
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 27, 2025 07:52PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 27, 2025 to Jul 27, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Jan 27, 2025 to Jul 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
5%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Kazahkstan very unlikely, Georgia and Armenia most likely due to 'anti-Russian' activity. Moldova highly unlikely / difficult to get to geogrpahically too.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
End of Russian invasion in Ukraine.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time, no chance unless completely unforseen event
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Health-related issues, assasination.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Update. Still all very unlikely due to NATO.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Desperation from Russia
Files
Why do you think you're right?
China's domestic sitation could worsen but unlikely. Trump's non-support for Ukraine acts as driver for China.
Why might you be wrong?
China's domestic sitation could worsen but unlikely. Trump's non-support for Ukraine acts as driver for China.