Confirmed previous forecast
0.165281
Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova
20%
(0%)
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia
4%
(0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova
75%
(0%)
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
President Xi just reinforced it at the 20th Party Congress, so unlikely h'ed reverse himself.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There may be significant economic justification to overturn the policy!
Files
Why do you think you're right?
It's more likely that the Netherlands rather than Japan and Korea would want to join the US and signal they do not want China to be exporting chips.
Why might you be wrong?
It's possible that Japan/South Korea and many other countries join the US in a broader coalition in a stand against China.