bw601

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All Time Stats

0.542053

Relative Brier Score

14

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
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Forecasts 0 0 0 0 14
Comments 0 0 0 0 11
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 7
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 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict, China Politics, Relations, and Technology, Science & Technology, Russia-Ukraine War, Public Attitudes

Most Active Topics:
EA College Tournament, Future Bowl

New Prediction
Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?
bw601 made their 1st forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
4%
Japan
20%
The Netherlands
6%
South Korea
13%
Any other country not listed
Why do you think you're right?

It's more likely that the Netherlands rather than Japan and Korea would want to join the US and signal they do not want China to be exporting chips.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

It's possible that Japan/South Korea and many other countries join the US in a broader coalition in a stand against China.

Files
New Badge
bw601 earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?
bw601 made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova
20% (0%)
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia
4% (0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova
75% (0%)
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova
Confirmed previous forecast
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