passage of time
0.540656
Relative Brier Score
59
Forecasts
13
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 162 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 78 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 40 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 32 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-11%)
Yes
98%
(+11%)
No
Decreasing as that there's not much time left in the year. I do think there's still a decent probability that it happens in the medium term, but I'm not sure why this would happen before 2025 at this point.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
71%
(0%)
Yes
29%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 13, 2024 07:20PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-15%)
Yes
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
85%
(+15%)
No
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Moving more inline with the crowd, given the general lack of unrest in Iran.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It looks like Iran is considering fining for women who don't follow hijab rules and deducting the money directly from their bank accounts: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202403110964
Given that women's rights were a major reason for previous protests, and legislative elections were just held on March 1st, people opposed to the law may feel like protest is their best or only option to effect change.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
unlikely in the next month
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
71%
Yes
29%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think there's a good chance there's significant push for a ceasefire from the international community incoming, given the looming invasion of Rafah. Israel may take the opportunity to sign an agreement with minimal concessions to Hamas.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's possible the war drags on or Israel declares victory and withdraws unilaterally without an agreement, especially if they commit to not recognizing Hamas as a group to be negotiated with.
Files
haven't updated this in a while (whoops). The situation has only gotten worse, so I'm not optimistic.