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Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
Moving more inline with the crowd, given the general lack of unrest in Iran.
Why might you be wrong?
It looks like Iran is considering fining for women who don't follow hijab rules and deducting the money directly from their bank accounts: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202403110964
Given that women's rights were a major reason for previous protests, and legislative elections were just held on March 1st, people opposed to the law may feel like protest is their best or only option to effect change.
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
I think there's a good chance there's significant push for a ceasefire from the international community incoming, given the looming invasion of Rafah. Israel may take the opportunity to sign an agreement with minimal concessions to Hamas.
Why might you be wrong?
It's possible the war drags on or Israel declares victory and withdraws unilaterally without an agreement, especially if they commit to not recognizing Hamas as a group to be negotiated with.
dropping with time
moving in line with crowd
This seems fairly unlikely to me. On the one hand, I think it's possible for them to close it, but the fact that they have a relatively strong presence in China for an American tech company, so I think they wouldn't want to jeopardize that relationship.