Nothing to suggest a change will happen in the next couple of weeks, so pulling the likelihood down to 99%.
6.564254
Relative Brier Score
115
Forecasts
24
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 42 | 14 | 129 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 16 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
lowering as the question window closes..
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 22, 2024 06:12PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 22, 2024 to Aug 22, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(0%)
Yes
5%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(-20%)
Yes
50%
(+20%)
No
Scaling downward as I'm not seeing enough movement on digital provenance adoption.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The likelihood that Russia could invade is non-zero. Estonia and Latvia have sizable ethnic Russian populations.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-09/putin-s-target-after-ukraine-may-be-nato-s-latvia-lithuania-estonia
Why might you be wrong?
However, if one of these nations was invaded, it may not be on the timetable associated with this question:
https://apnews.com/article/poland-estonia-russia-nato-putin-bf0bc50554182f9c9bd5ea9b1a5cf2ef