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thsavage
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2020 Season
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Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Africa
China Lithography
Cybersecurity
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
East Asia Security
Economic Debt
Future Bowl
Government Investment
Iran Nuclear Program
Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
metric-question
Microelectronics
Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Open RAN
Quantum Computing
Russian Disinformation
semiconductors
Semiconductor Supply Chain
Syria
U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
-0.000007
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
-0.007351
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
-0.032706
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
-0.228861
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
0.000785
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?
0.001219
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?
-0.000922
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC
What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?
-0.006778
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?
-0.000925
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?
0.001486
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC
Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?
-0.181101
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
0.010654
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?
0.000339
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC
Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?
-0.011044
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC
How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?
-0.218931
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan?
0.035515
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?
-0.026272
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?
0.017475
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
0.000822
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?
-0.03198
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