Increasing due to an outstanding analysis by @o-maverick here https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141648
The big reason for @o-maverick being so high compared to me and others is the contention that the rate of coups became much higher recently. Good point, but I worry about strongly weighting recent news in a base rate analysis. According to the correlations we found in the research supporting the graphic below, rationales that cite recent news as elements of a comparison class analysis correlate strongly with poorer forecasting. Granted, I cite recent news frequently, yet have been highly successful at forecasting. On the other hand, I don't often use current news when establishing base rates.
Perhaps in this case @o-maverick will turn out to be correct.
Would a ground invasion finally convince the question scorers that Netanyahu means it when he keeps on saying that Israel is at war with Hezbollah? It appears that we soon will find out.
Dateline 9-30-2024 Israeli special forces have been carrying out small, targeted raids into southern Lebanon, gathering intelligence and probing ahead of a possible broader ground incursion that could come as soon as this week, people familiar with the matter said.
The raids, which have included entering Hezbollah’s tunnels located along the border, have occurred recently as well as over the past months, part of the broader effort by Israel to degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities along the border dividing Israel and Lebanon, the people said. The timing of any ground action could change, the people said.
The Biden administration expects an imminent Israeli invasion of Lebanon, U.S. officials said.
Source: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-special-forces-launch-raids-into-lebanon-ahead-of-possible-ground-incursion-bf2fe94d
See also more news citations provided by @efosong here https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141677