Faded_Oracle

Chinese companies face substantial barriers in producing advanced DUV photolithography equipment. This includes engineering requirements, supply chain dependencies, and IP challenges. Major companies like SMEE are still several generations behind DUV leaders, such as ASML and Nikon, and would need to bridge this gap in under two years. Moreover, export controls and geopolitical factors restrict access to components and technology needed for high-volume manufacturing ​(Chinese Lithography RAN…).

EUV lithography is more complex and demanding than DUV.

Chinese companies, particularly SMEE, are still in early development stages, with patents filed but no practical machines close to high-volume capability. EUV machines require extreme precision.

Components like light sources and magnetic field generators are far from completion. Experts suggest it could take 10-20 years for China to achieve this level of technology under present circumstances, meaning high-volume EUVs are unlikely to be ready before 2030. 

Yes, I'd like to offer a better reference than Reddit, but there is a decent trove of educated guesses here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Optics/comments/1aid4fy/how_long_until_china_develop_euv_litography/

China has been investing heavily in Africa for some time.

@DKC mentions a sunnier outlook on the Chinese economy than we’ve had in years. I would add that, as Taiwan is a relatively hot button compared to Africa, they may be inclined to let that pot simmer while they turn their eyes elsewhere.

China wants secure sea routes. African sea routes are vital to their economy. The Gulf of Guinea has been flagged as a possible location for a Chinese military base. Gabon would be a second choice, and several East African countries could be chosen.

U.S. opposition to the expansion of Chinese influence has not been entirely successful. If building a base in Africa is a calculated risk, then it is not nearly as dangerous as anything related to Taiwan.

Finally, this question has an unusually long resolution window.

Was far too zealous in my first forecast of the question. I'll blame the espresso.