211th

Accuracy Rank

Faded_Oracle

About:

Top Forecaster - May 2024

Oracle - Bronze

Top Forecaster - Mar 2024

Top Forecaster - Feb 2024

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7.264082

Relative Brier Score

240

Forecasts

50

Upvotes

Forecasting Activity

Forecasting Calendar

	Past Week	Past Month	Past Year	This Season	All Time
Forecasts	2	8	78	55	598
Comments	0	0	17	16	165
Questions Forecasted	2	8	36	25	128
Upvotes on Comments By This User	0	0	4	4	80
Definitions

New Prediction

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Faded_Oracle made their 10th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

5% (0%)

Moldova

2% (0%)

Armenia

2% (0%)

Georgia

1% (0%)

Kazakhstan

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 18, 2025 08:27PM UTC

New Prediction

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Faded_Oracle made their 10th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

1% (0%)

Estonia

1% (0%)

Latvia

1% (0%)

Lithuania

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 18, 2025 08:27PM UTC

New Prediction

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Faded_Oracle made their 12th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

0% (0%)

Yes

Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026

100% (0%)

No

Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 09, 2025 05:46PM UTC

New Prediction

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Faded_Oracle made their 3rd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

1% (0%)

Yes

Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026

99% (0%)

No

Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 09, 2025 05:46PM UTC

New Prediction

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Faded_Oracle made their 4th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

10% (0%)

Yes

Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2027

90% (0%)

No

Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2027

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 09, 2025 05:46PM UTC

New Prediction

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Faded_Oracle made their 6th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

1% (0%)

Yes

99% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 09, 2025 05:46PM UTC

New Prediction

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Faded_Oracle made their 4th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

2% (0%)

Yes

98% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 09, 2025 05:46PM UTC

New Badge

Faded_Oracle earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Faded_Oracle made their 6th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

1% (0%)

Yes

Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026

99% (0%)

No

Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 09, 2025 05:46PM UTC

New Prediction

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Faded_Oracle made their 5th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

60% (0%)

Yes

40% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Nov 01, 2025 02:18AM UTC