RAND Forecasting Initiative

2023 Season

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	-0.007773
May 1, 2024 04:01AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	0.014515
Jan 1, 2024 05:00PM	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	0.292678
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	0.007555
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM	What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?	0.213829
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM	Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?	0.116308
Sep 1, 2023 04:01AM	Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?	-0.001708
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM	Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023?	0.097866
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	0.032539
Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	0.518469
Apr 5, 2023 07:14PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023)	0.003105
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	0.106066
Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.005253
Feb 1, 2023 06:46PM	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	0.000926