MichelleCG

It is possible that China may establish another military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) by 1 January 2027, given its strategic goal of securing trade routes, protecting overseas investments, and expanding global influence, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative. China’s growing military and economic presence in Africa, coupled with strong diplomatic ties and significant investments in critical infrastructure, makes this a plausible development. Additionally, the need to protect Chinese nationals and assets may drive the establishment of such a base, although it will ultimately depend on the geopolitical landscape and the willingness of potential host countries.

No, it is unlikely that the PLA will invade, blockade, or attack Taiwan in the next six months.

Reasons:

International Repercussions: An outright military action against Taiwan would likely draw significant international condemnation and potential military responses from the United States and its allies. This would be a considerable risk for China.

Economic Impact: China is heavily integrated into the global economy. An invasion or blockade would disrupt global supply chains and could lead to severe economic sanctions, which would negatively impact the Chinese economy.

Military Preparations and Risks: A large-scale military operation such as an invasion would require extensive preparation and carry substantial risks. The PLA would need to ensure overwhelming success to avoid prolonged conflict, which could be highly costly.

Political Calculations: The Chinese government, led by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), is likely to consider the domestic political implications of such an action. Social and economic stability within China is a priority, and a military conflict could jeopardize this.

Current Diplomatic Efforts: China continues to pursue a combination of diplomatic, economic, and military pressure tactics to assert its claims over Taiwan without resorting to direct military action. This approach allows China to apply pressure while avoiding the immediate and severe consequences of an invasion.

The likelihood of the Lebanese parliament electing a president in the next six months is significantly hampered by deep political divisions within the country. Lebanon's political system, which is heavily influenced by sectarianism, often results in protracted deadlocks as various factions struggle to reach a consensus. The influence of external actors like Iran, through Hezbollah, and Saudi Arabia further complicates the situation, as their conflicting interests can exacerbate internal divisions. Additionally, the Lebanese parliament has historically struggled with inefficiency and issues in maintaining a quorum, delaying critical decisions. This inefficiency is coupled with historical precedents where Lebanon has faced extended periods without a president, such as the two-year vacancy following Michel Suleiman's term. These factors collectively suggest that the election of a new president within the next six months is unlikely.