MichelleCG

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Relative Brier Score
1364000.511.522.533.54
Questions Forecasted

4

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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Forecasts 0 4 22 4 58
Comments 0 1 3 1 14
Questions Forecasted 0 4 11 4 21
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 2 1 2
 Definitions
New Prediction
MichelleCG
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
Yes
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
30%
No
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

The likelihood of North Korea conducting a nuclear test within the next six months is supported by multiple converging factors. Intelligence reports from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service indicate that a seventh nuclear test may occur following the U.S. presidential election in November 2024, consistent with North Korea’s historical pattern of leveraging such tests for strategic and diplomatic purposes. Additionally, satellite imagery has revealed ongoing renovations at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, suggesting active preparations. Recent missile tests, including tactical ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, further demonstrate North Korea’s intent to enhance its military capabilities. Kim Jong Un’s visit to a uranium enrichment facility and escalatory rhetoric on nuclear readiness reinforce the notion that North Korea is advancing its nuclear program. These developments, coupled with geopolitical dynamics, indicate a strong probability that a nuclear test will take place within the specified timeframe.

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Why might you be wrong?

Despite strong indications that North Korea may conduct a nuclear test within the next six months, several factors could prevent or delay such an event. The regime's actions are often strategic and calculated, meaning it may choose to leverage the threat of a nuclear test as a bargaining tool in diplomatic negotiations rather than proceeding with an actual detonation. Additionally, international pressure, particularly from China and Russia, could dissuade North Korea from testing, as both countries have historically sought to prevent actions that could escalate regional tensions or justify stronger U.S. military presence in East Asia. Technical or logistical challenges, such as unforeseen issues at the Punggye-ri test site or resource constraints, may also contribute to delays. Lastly, North Korea's unpredictable decision-making process, influenced by shifting internal priorities or external geopolitical developments, adds an element of uncertainty that could undermine the expectation of an imminent nuclear test.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
MichelleCG
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
MichelleCG
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
MichelleCG
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

It is possible that China may establish another military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) by 1 January 2027, given its strategic goal of securing trade routes, protecting overseas investments, and expanding global influence, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative. China’s growing military and economic presence in Africa, coupled with strong diplomatic ties and significant investments in critical infrastructure, makes this a plausible development. Additionally, the need to protect Chinese nationals and assets may drive the establishment of such a base, although it will ultimately depend on the geopolitical landscape and the willingness of potential host countries.

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BlancaElenaGG
made a comment:
I agree
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New Badge
MichelleCG
earned a new badge:

Upvotes Received

New Prediction
MichelleCG
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 05:24AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
MichelleCG
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2024 05:24AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (0%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
90% (0%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
MichelleCG
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 05:24AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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