Escalating tensions
0.359233
Relative Brier Score
16
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 16 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Future Bowl,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Iran-VNSAs,
Africa
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
62%
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
38%
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
No clear incentive for Israel and timeframe is quite small
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 25, 2024 07:01PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
85%
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
15%
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
Troops mobilizing on border
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 25, 2024 06:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
40%
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Weakened global order means leaders have been getting away with coups in Africa, no clear reason why I’d expect this trend to reverse.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Six months is a fairly short timeframe
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 25, 2024 06:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
100%
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
The pain caused to the global economy, including China’s would be too great. Especially at a time when china is struggling economically
Files
He’s 85