RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 09, 2024 03:27PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	Sep 9, 2024 to Sep 9, 2025	Dec 9, 2024	22%	+13%	+15%
No	65%	Sep 9, 2024 to Sep 9, 2025	Dec 9, 2024	78%	-13%	-15%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2024 07:42PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	0%	1%	-1%	-4%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	31%	19%	+12%	+0%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	60%	72%	-12%	+4%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	9%	8%	+1%	+0%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 06:29PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	7%	1%	+6%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	27%	4%	+23%	-1%
More than or equal to 28%	66%	94%	-28%	+2%

mevanko