I think this is very unlikely to happen in such a short amount of time
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 34 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is entirely possible
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 23, 2025 11:40PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
22%
Yes
Jan 23, 2025 to Jan 23, 2026
78%
No
Jan 23, 2025 to Jan 23, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
I think I may be right because China is usually fast in advancing technology that is very competitve
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I may be wrong because I do not know much about China's processes right now
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
31%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
60%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
9%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 23, 2025 to Jan 23, 2026
65%
(0%)
No
Jan 23, 2025 to Jan 23, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 24%
7%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
27%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
66%
More than or equal to 28%
I think I may be right because the America semiconductor industry is very strong
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I think they are moving towards this
Why might you be wrong?
Russia seems resistant and may drag it on