RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM	What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?	0.026037
Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM	Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?	0.004515
Jul 1, 2024 04:01AM	Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?	0.004625
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	0.852529
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM	What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?	-0.016261
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?	0.253372
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces?	0.316641
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?	0.077125
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	1.072996
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?	-0.002086
Oct 11, 2023 04:00PM	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 11, 2023 and Oct 11, 2023)	-0.00065
Sep 11, 2023 04:00PM	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 11, 2023 and Sep 11, 2023)	-0.004839
Aug 21, 2023 09:00PM	Will GenScript’s Industrial Synthetic Biology segment report an operating profit in the first half of 2023?	0.724922
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	0.185645
Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM	What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022?	0.0524
Jan 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.211369