Confirmed previous forecast
0.746406
Relative Brier Score
17
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 36 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 28, 2024 06:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 28, 2024 to Jul 28, 2024
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2024 06:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 28, 2024 to Jul 28, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 3, 2024 05:18PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Dec 3, 2023 to Jun 3, 2024
Under the Biden administration, this will never happen. HIs administration is aware that it is impossible to strike Iranian nuclear facilities without completely disrupting the Middle East, and it is not his administrations main concern in the region right now.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 26, 2024 06:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Nov 26, 2023 to May 26, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
There is not a chance that Iran will renegotiate back down to JCPOA levels of enrichment
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Somehow Biden and his administration execute foreign policy on a level not seen since Stresemann in Weimar Germany
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 12, 2023 07:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Oct 12, 2023 to Nov 12, 2023
Why do you think you're right?
This is probably the worst the conflict has ever been (in my lifetime) - the last time Israel engaged in significant context was the 1973 war, and that lasted much longer than a month... Israel is most definitely going to engage in warfare against Hamas
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The humanitarian crisis may become so overwhelming that Israel will be forced to bite their lip and come to some sort of negotiation around Palestine and Gaza
Files
Why do you think you're right?
iran backed militia just drone-struck Americans in Jordan
Why might you be wrong?
Iran-backed doesn't necessarily mean Iranian strike