0.976563
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
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Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Definitions |
Active Forecaster
Under the Biden administration, this will never happen. HIs administration is aware that it is impossible to strike Iranian nuclear facilities without completely disrupting the Middle East, and it is not his administrations main concern in the region right now.
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
There is not a chance that Iran will renegotiate back down to JCPOA levels of enrichment
Why might you be wrong?
Somehow Biden and his administration execute foreign policy on a level not seen since Stresemann in Weimar Germany
Upvotes Received
Why do you think you're right?
This is probably the worst the conflict has ever been (in my lifetime) - the last time Israel engaged in significant context was the 1973 war, and that lasted much longer than a month... Israel is most definitely going to engage in warfare against Hamas
Why might you be wrong?
The humanitarian crisis may become so overwhelming that Israel will be forced to bite their lip and come to some sort of negotiation around Palestine and Gaza
Why do you think you're right?
iran backed militia just drone-struck Americans in Jordan
Why might you be wrong?
Iran-backed doesn't necessarily mean Iranian strike