I highly doubt that Iran would act against the US in the coming months based on the current global situation.
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This forecast expired on Dec 11, 2023 05:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Nov 11, 2023 to May 11, 2024
98%
No
Nov 11, 2023 to May 11, 2024
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@reamy Thanks for your forecast! I'm curious -- what are you referencing with "current global situation", more specifically?
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Probability
Answer
45%
Less than or equal to 24
32%
Between 25 and 34, inclusive
10%
Between 35 and 44, inclusive
4%
Between 45 and 54, inclusive
9%
More than or equal to 55
Autonomous vehicles get smarter everyday. Thanks Elon!
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Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
While Australia may feel economically threatened by Taiwan, this threat is not so grave that it would warrant a response as severe as issuing a Level 3 or 4 travel warning to the country.
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Answer
4%
(-23%)
Yes
The situation in Iran has calmed down a lot since my last forecast. There are a lot fewer protests now than there were earlier in the year.
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I highly doubt after Israeli aggression in the occupied region of Palestine that any Muslim-majority country would want to formalize diplomatic relations with Israel in the near future.