-0.000257
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Definitions |
Why do you think you're right?
There is no chance it changes in the next 24 hours.
Why might you be wrong?
The absolute worst luck possible.
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
It is unlikely that we see any changes in the next 3 months in Russian leadership.
Why might you be wrong?
If there are significant victories by Ukraine or if foreign Nations increase their contributions to the war effort in favor of ukraine, we could potentially see Putin being ousted.
Why do you think you're right?
Xi has cemented his place in leadership and has only gotten stronger. He is not going anywhere.
Why might you be wrong?
His unexpected death.
Why do you think you're right?
Russia is already suffering greatly in Ukraine, and such a significant show of force would be detrimental to its long-term strategy. A nuclear test would escalate and draw in major western powers and likely spook China, India, and Pakistan, the other major nuclear powers in the area.
Why might you be wrong?
Putin is desperate and may throw logic out the window and go for a short-term scare tactic even if it is not the best option. A nuclear test or deployment of a nuclear option in combat would change the course of the conflict.
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
They have continued to double down on this policy and Xi has not suffered for it. He remains in charge of the party and has solidified his support. There is very little reason to go back on this policy, and they have the ability of the state to enforce this measure through force.
Why might you be wrong?
A significant economic downturn and the need to signal to international markets that Xi is taking corrective action could possibly see a lift in the zero COVID policy.