Confirmed previous forecast
0.008585
Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Future Bowl,
Quantum Computing
New Prediction
Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 30, 2023 07:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2022 to Jan 30, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
There is no chance it changes in the next 24 hours.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The absolute worst luck possible.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-10%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
It is unlikely that we see any changes in the next 3 months in Russian leadership.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If there are significant victories by Ukraine or if foreign Nations increase their contributions to the war effort in favor of ukraine, we could potentially see Putin being ousted.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Xi has cemented his place in leadership and has only gotten stronger. He is not going anywhere.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
His unexpected death.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 4, 2022 07:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Nov 4, 2022 to Dec 4, 2022
Why do you think you're right?
Russia is already suffering greatly in Ukraine, and such a significant show of force would be detrimental to its long-term strategy. A nuclear test would escalate and draw in major western powers and likely spook China, India, and Pakistan, the other major nuclear powers in the area.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin is desperate and may throw logic out the window and go for a short-term scare tactic even if it is not the best option. A nuclear test or deployment of a nuclear option in combat would change the course of the conflict.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
They have continued to double down on this policy and Xi has not suffered for it. He remains in charge of the party and has solidified his support. There is very little reason to go back on this policy, and they have the ability of the state to enforce this measure through force.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A significant economic downturn and the need to signal to international markets that Xi is taking corrective action could possibly see a lift in the zero COVID policy.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files