Confirmed previous forecast
-1.308343
Relative Brier Score
1504
Forecasts
65
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 28 | 327 | 311 | 1504 |
| Comments | 1 | 7 | 85 | 77 | 101 |
| Questions Forecasted | 6 | 12 | 26 | 22 | 93 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 65 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Emerging Technology,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Artificial Intelligence,
Microelectronic Technologies
Most Active Topics:
Open RAN,
Decoding Disinformation,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Future Bowl
New Prediction
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-4%)
Yes
98%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing further.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Updating with time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files