I think the measures will be relaxed somewhat, but not completely removed
0.010245
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
I can't imagine that the sanctions will end. However, the pressure to start peace talks is increasing. The American population is also becoming less supportive of the sanctions. For Putin, peace talks could be the only way out to save face to some extent.
Files
From what the definition of a real nuclear weapon is, I don't assume Putin would use one. It would be the end not only of Russia but probably of many other countries in the world. But possible that he considers the usage of a dirty bomb, which ist not an atomic bomb.