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Oberasbacher

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Oberasbacher
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jan 7, 2023 01:10PM
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Dec 7, 2022 to Jan 7, 2023

From what the definition of a real nuclear weapon is, I don't assume Putin would use one. It would be the end not only of Russia but probably of many other countries in the world. But possible that he considers the usage of a dirty bomb, which ist not an atomic bomb. 

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I think the measures will be relaxed somewhat, but not completely removed

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I can't imagine that the sanctions will end. However, the pressure to start peace talks is increasing. The American population is also becoming less supportive of the sanctions. For Putin, peace talks could be the only way out to save face to some extent. 

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