Trump signalling.
-0.204661
Relative Brier Score
126
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 10 | 55 | 44 | 126 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 8 | 19 | 16 | 28 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: AI Advancement
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Nov 15, 2024 to Nov 15, 2025
90%
No
Nov 15, 2024 to Nov 15, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-25%)
Yes
90%
(+25%)
No
MIIT strategy seems at first glance not fast enough to hit the timeframe (time update).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 9, 2024 to May 9, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 9, 2024 to May 9, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
65%
No
Investment is going to grow as MIIT is starting to favour IDMs over pure-play which will feed more subsidisation.
Files
The level of investment means they will have to catch up and Trump win.