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rumi

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New Prediction

For over three decades, every Chinese foreign minister’s first overseas trip of the year has been to Africa. This year continued the tradition with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, visiting Egypt, Tunisia, Togo and Côte d’Ivoire. Notably, every one of these countries is coastal. And yet, at a time of continued speculation over China’s next military installation in Africa, none of these countries has featured prominently as potential locations in previous analyses. 


We might, therefore, reasonably ask what China’s current considerations are around basing in Africa. Faced with an increasingly multipolar and assertive Africa at a time of domestic economic challenge, however, China’s long-term strategy remains unclear.

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vpsays
made a comment:

hey @rumi, good points to highlight from the USIP article. can you link to your source when you quote directly from an article though just so the rest of us forecasters know where it came from? 

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New Prediction

When Vladimir Putin was named president in 1999, Russia’s constitution limited the president to two consecutive terms. That’s why, after his second term ended in 2008, he served as prime minister before becoming president again in 2012. However, in January 2020 Putin drafted a constitutional amendment that would allow him to remain president for two more terms. It was included in a package of amendments that was approved by the Russian legislature and, in July 2020, by Russian voters in a national referendum. In the two decades of Vladimir Putin’s reign, he has consolidated his rule and projected to the Russian people an image of Russia as a global power. He turned Russia from a nascent democratic state into an autocratic one, expanded Russia’s influence in the Middle East, strengthened Russian relations with China, and displayed a willingness to use force to achieve his goals, as in his annexation of Crimea in 2014 and his large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

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New Prediction

The Iran nuclear agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is a landmark accord reached between Iran and several world powers, including the United States, in July 2015. Under its terms, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear program and open its facilities to more extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars’ worth of sanctions relief.


Proponents of the deal said that it would help prevent a revival of Iran’s nuclear weapons program and thereby reduce the prospects for conflict between Iran and its regional rivals, including Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, the deal has been in jeopardy since President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from it in 2018. In retaliation for the U.S. departure and for deadly attacks on prominent Iranians in 2020, including one by the United States, Iran has resumed its nuclear activities. UN inspectors reported in early 2023 that Iran had enriched trace amounts of uranium to nearly weapons-grade levels, sparking international alarm. 


President Joe Biden said that the United States would return to the JCPOA if Iran came back into compliance, but after more than two years of stop-and-go talks, the countries are nowhere near a compromise, and as of late 2023, provisions of the agreement have started to expire.

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New Prediction

Uranium particles enriched to near bomb-grade levels have been found at an Iranian nuclear facility, according to the UN’s nuclear watchdog, as the US warned that Tehran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb was accelerating.


In a restricted report seen by CNN, the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that uranium particles enriched to 83.7% purity – which is close to the 90% enrichment levels needed to make a nuclear bomb – had been found in Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), an underground nuclear facility located some 20 miles northeast of the city of Qom.


The report says that in January, the IAEA took environmental samples at the Fordow plant, which showed the presence of high enriched uranium particles up to 83.7% purity.

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New Prediction
rumi
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (-9%)
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025

Iran increases its stockpile of 20% enriched uranium, which was announced as 62.8 kilograms in September 2021, to 751 kilograms over three years


- Iran states that it will realign its nuclear activities with the agreement if US returns to nuclear deal and relevant sanctions are lifted


TEHRAN


After the US withdrew from the nuclear deal six years ago, Iran has accelerated its nuclear activities, increasing its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium more than 14-fold in three years.


In 2015, an agreement was signed between Iran and the permanent members of the UN Security Council -- the US, Russia, China, the UK, France, and Germany (5+1) -- to regulate and oversee Tehran's nuclear activities.


The nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), allows Tehran to continue enriching uranium up to 3.67% and to possess no more than 300 kilograms of uranium.


The agreement allows Iran to sell excess uranium. Previously, Iran enriched uranium up to 20% purity.


On May 8, 2018, under former US President Donald Trump, Washington withdrew from the agreement and reimposed sanctions on Iran. A year later, Iran began suspending some commitments due to lack of counteraction against the sanctions by other parties.

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction

creasingly seeking to block funds from reaching Yemen’s Houthi group, a push that could jeapordise United Nations-led efforts to end the civil war in the country, Bloomberg News has reported.


According to the report published on Thursday, Washington is looking to block major parts of a UN peace plan that the warring parties in Yemen adopted in December unless the Houthis cease their attacks on international shipping lanes.


That includes $1.5bn to be paid by Saudi Arabia to civil servants in Houthi-controlled areas, as per the UN roadmap, Bloomberg reported, citing an unidentified source.

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New Prediction
rumi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
76%
Moldova
75%
Armenia
78%
Georgia
8%
Kazakhstan

According to 30 May, Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia are caught in between Russia and the EU, building ties with the latter even as the former seeks to maintain influence there and deter the West.

So, there is highly chances. 





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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Israel severely restricted the amount of aid entering Gaza after October 7. Before the war, 500 truckloads of aid entered Gaza daily—with needs increased, a huge uplift in aid is required, but far less is actually arriving

Within the first six weeks of 2024, the Israeli military denied access to more than 50% of aid missions planned for north of Wadi Gaza and 25% for areas south of Wadi Gaza. Throughout April, an average of 186 trucks crossed into Gaza per day—about 37% of the pre-conflict aid delivery rates. The closure of the Rafah and Kerem Shalom Crossings is leading to severe shortages of fuel and threatening the continuity of humanitarian interventions.


So there is highly chances to be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days

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Why might you be wrong?

Israel severely restricted the amount of aid entering Gaza after October 7. Before the war, 500 truckloads of aid entered Gaza daily—with needs increased, a huge uplift in aid is required, but far less is actually arriving.


Within the first six weeks of 2024, the Israeli military denied access to more than 50% of aid missions planned for north of Wadi Gaza and 25% for areas south of Wadi Gaza. Throughout April, an average of 186 trucks crossed into Gaza per day—about 37% of the pre-conflict aid delivery rates. The closure of the Rafah and Kerem Shalom Crossings is leading to severe shortages of fuel and threatening the continuity of humanitarian interventions.

So there is the highly chances to be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

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New Prediction
rumi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jul 14, 2024 12:39PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Jun 14, 2024 to Dec 14, 2024
99%
No
Jun 14, 2024 to Dec 14, 2024

In addition to Turkey and Azerbaijan, Israel has diplomatic relations with 5 non-Arab Muslim states in Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan).

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