20th
Accuracy Rank

SandroAVL

About:

Started forecasting in GJP 2.0, then at INFER (ARLIS-UMD), also collaborating with RANGE from Bertelsmann, and since 2023, very happy to learn & colaborate here at RAND RFI and Cultivate Labs.

Testing a mental model, based on a set of parameters to increase accuracy, identifying patterns of bias, in order to increase forecast's process gain.

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2022 Season Stats

-0.000497

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 65 99 195 195 1139
Comments 32 61 169 169 584
Questions Forecasted 12 12 26 26 100
Upvotes on Comments By This User 4 7 13 13 301
 Definitions
New Prediction
What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?
SandroAVL made their 7th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5% (0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
20% (0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
35% (0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
30% (0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
10% (0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?
SandroAVL made their 6th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than 62%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
99% (0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
SandroAVL made their 32nd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Estonia
2% (0%)
Latvia
2% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
SandroAVL made their 40th forecast (view all):
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This forecast will expire on Jan 17, 2026
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Dec 17, 2025 to Jun 17, 2026
99% (0%)
No
Dec 17, 2025 to Jun 17, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
SandroAVL made their 22nd forecast (view all):
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This forecast will expire on Jan 17, 2026
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Dec 17, 2025 to Jun 17, 2026
99% (0%)
No
Dec 17, 2025 to Jun 17, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
SandroAVL made their 29th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0% (0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1% (0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99% (0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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