113th
Accuracy Rank

lygodesma

About:
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-0.278746

Relative Brier Score

13

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 8 62 58 71
Comments 0 1 7 6 9
Questions Forecasted 0 8 17 15 17
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 1 2
 Definitions
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
lygodesma
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
lygodesma
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7% (0%)
Yes
Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
93% (0%)
No
Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
lygodesma
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Estonia
0% (0%)
Latvia
0% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
lygodesma
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Oct 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Oct 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
lygodesma
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60% (-6%)
Yes
Oct 9, 2024 to Apr 9, 2025
40% (+6%)
No
Oct 9, 2024 to Apr 9, 2025

lowering chances slightly since it seems Tunisia's elections do not count as a 'self-coup'

Files
ctsats
made a comment:

Some of us had already expressed the opinion that most probably it was not going to be a new self-coup:

https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139898

https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/142186 (and comments underneath)

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

SDF is likely to stay in control and the US has a vested interest (as well as base in Deir Ezzor) in keeping them in power in the fight against ISIS. Syrian regime forces have launched raids against SDF posts in recent months, but with minimal impact. 

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Why might you be wrong?

SDF is dealing with influx of people fleeing Lebanon due to Israeli strikes which could be destabilizing in the long term.

Files
New Prediction

updating likelihood as both sides are digging in

Files
New Prediction
lygodesma
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
0% (0%)
Oman
0% (0%)
Qatar
0% (-10%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (-3%)
Tunisia
updating percentages based on recent events
Files
New Badge
lygodesma
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

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