With many ongoing conflicts around the world, there are more serious problems currently than Pyongyang conducting a nuclear test. Pyongyang could use this opportuny to test and enhance its nuclear bomb arsenal without many retaliation.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 27, 2025 02:10AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
53%
Yes
Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025
47%
No
Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A nuclear test is expensive, perhaps North Korea might not afford it, even more in a moment where Russia and China are dealing with the War on Ukraine and a possible renewal of the Commercial War - as Trump is the new president of the United States -, respectively, and might not willing to finance such test.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Argentina
15%
Bolivia
25%
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
Ecuador has higher chances of entering into financial default, but is not likely to happen. They are pressed but not enough to face such problem in a short time like october 2025.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
South American countries' instability turns possible any outcome when it comes to political and financial crisis. Also, despite Bolivia, the other two countries entered into default multiple times in the past 40 years.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Moldova
35%
(0%)
Armenia
50%
(0%)
Georgia
20%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 21, 2025 02:29AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 21, 2025 to Aug 21, 2025
65%
(0%)
No
Feb 21, 2025 to Aug 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
(0%)
Yes
58%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Less than 24%
50%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
29%
(0%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
13%
(0%)
More than or equal to 28%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The US - the biggest contributor of Ukraine in terms of war supplies - have been putting effort to make a ceasefire as soon as possible. Therefore, there is high expectations for it before 1 October 2025.
Why might you be wrong?
However, Ukraine might be feared to agree a ceasefire soon, and delay it to early 2026 or late december 2025.