Politics in Africa are always surrounded by skepticism when it comes to governments' stability. A coup d'État is surely problable, by the reason that the majority of countries in Africa suffer from systemical instabilities such as corruption, low development rates, and military interferences on politics, resulting in many coups at the continent since middle of the past century. Therefore, due theses reasons, it is very probable to occur a coup in the next months in some african country.
1.362951
Relative Brier Score
19
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 14 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Africa
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 01:58AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
68%
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
32%
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
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Why might you be wrong?
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 28, 2024 02:39AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
Yes
Aug 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
65%
No
Aug 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
It is improbable an invasion carried by China in Taiwan island. Taiwan has a major role in global economy, and it is not certain if China could led such invasion without colapse its economy due to the importance of Taiwan and the western aid that would occur in this scenario.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
(0%)
Yes
58%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Less than 24%
50%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
29%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
13%
More than or equal to 28%
Due to current economic instabilities worldwide especially at the US, I think the semiconductors revenue in the american continent will be a little bit less than the expected by the report of the WSTS.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
Moldova
35%
Armenia
50%
Georgia
20%
Kazakhstan
Despite none of these countries are not politically alligned with western countries and organizations, they might see a new invasion by Russia in one of its neighbours - or in all of them - as an attempt to reinforce influence in its strategic outline and secure important resources. These countries combined have a population of 27 million people, a vast portion of land, and important resources such as minerals, gas, oil. Also, Russia has the acknowledge that advancing forward to the Caucasus and Central Asia could spark concern not just towards the European Union and NATO, but towards China as well, currently one of the biggest commercial partners of Russia, since the chinese influence on Asia are growing, and a conflict in Kazakhstan - which shares borders with China - is concerning for Beijing.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 7, 2024 02:13AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 7, 2024 to Feb 7, 2025
60%
(0%)
No
Aug 7, 2024 to Feb 7, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
40%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Unless Ukraine further its attack on Russia or Putin get some health issue, he will continue to be the Russian leader. He is feared by the opposition, he has a good relationship with militars, and in war times it is very difficult a leadership change.