SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.
 

Vinicio

About:
Show more

No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 1 1 10 10 12
Comments 0 0 2 2 2
Questions Forecasted 1 1 5 5 6
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Badge
Vinicio
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Vinicio
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60% (-20%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
40% (+20%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025

While tensions remain high, a full-scale declaration of war by Israel on Hezbollah in the next six months is not the most likely outcome unless there's a significant escalation, such as a sustained attack by Hezbollah on Israeli targets or a broader regional conflict involving Iran. Israel will likely continue its current strategy of preemptive strikes and deterrence, while Hezbollah may engage in limited provocations rather than full-scale war.


However, unpredictable factors, such as domestic political pressures in Israel or Lebanon, unexpected military incidents, or Iranian involvement, could tip the balance. The situation remains volatile, but cautious restraint on both sides suggests an all-out war is not the most probable scenario in the short term.

Files
New Prediction
Vinicio
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No

Maduro, as many other men in power worldwide, is very obsessed of his political position. He is going to do everything he can to stand on Venezuela's chair. 

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
PeterStamp
made a comment:
There are only 14 hours to go for this to happen...
Files
New Prediction
Vinicio
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Aug 31, 2024 01:20PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20% (0%)
Yes
May 31, 2024 to Nov 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
Frequently new planets are being discovered. 
Files
Why might you be wrong?

Planets where life as we know can exists are rare. 

Files
New Badge
Vinicio
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Vinicio
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jun 30, 2024 01:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80% (0%)
Yes
May 31, 2024 to Nov 30, 2024
20% (0%)
No
May 31, 2024 to Nov 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Vinicio
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Vinicio
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jul 30, 2024 05:14PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024

Iran is not going to agree to limit uranium in short term, considering conflicts that had been involved against Israel. 

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username