GuilhermeRenno

Guilherme Rennó

About:

Brazilian with Law and Public Policy degrees. Has worked as a political consultant for national and international organizations for over 5 years. Currently studying for the diplomat's career admission exam in Brazil.

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Forecasted Questions

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2024 11:46PM
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	2%	+1%	-2%
No	97%	98%	-1%	+2%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 09:40PM
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	39%	-34%	-11%
No	95%	61%	+34%	+11%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2024 06:42PM
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	51%	9%	+42%	-23%
No	49%	91%	-42%	+23%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2024 10:27PM
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 59	0%	3%	-3%	+1%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	0%	9%	-9%	+3%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	4%	33%	-29%	+8%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	16%	43%	-27%	-5%
More than or equal to 90	80%	13%	+67%	-7%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 08:00PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	6%	+4%	-1%
No	90%	94%	-4%	+1%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 03:05PM
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	2%	9%	-7%	+0%
Bolivia	4%	12%	-8%	+0%
Ecuador	6%	9%	-3%	+0%