GuilhermeRenno

All of the 3 Baltic States have frontiers with Russia or Belarus.

Also, the three of them are currently part of NATO and UE. 

Even though they are vulnerable because of their small population (7 million altogether), they all spend over 2% of their budget on defense. 

However, there is the risk of the USA, in the context of Donald Trump's new "big stick" politics, to draw itself from NATO making it considerably weaker. 

Even though, a Russian attack on the Baltic states before 1 April 2027 doesn't seem feasible because of the following:

The UE and other countries of NATO (mostly UE members) are getting ready for a military response that doesn't count on American support; in this regard two countries are key: Finland and Poland. Both of them have considerably larger military expenses and count with significantly larger populations (around 40 million together, more than the 37 million Ukrainians).

Those countries are located north and south of the Baltic states. This represents a risky invasion for Russia because its troops could be surrounded. 

All in all, Russian imperialism is likely to continue during the next years, however, there are more vulnerable and potentially valuable countries to be invaded before it turns its attention the the Baltics once more. 

The current Argentinian government prioritizes public finances, it was probably their main campaign promise, therefore, entering into default would be politically deadly and it would be avoided at all costs. In addition, Argentina is making progress in organizing its public finances, having recently lowered its investment risk grades by specialized ranking agencies. 

The Bolivian situation, however, is more challenging. In January 2025, the Fitch agency downgraded the country's investment risk from CCC (current Argentinian grade) to CCC-. In addition, Bolivia is facing intense political instability caused by former allies Arce and Morales's arm wrestling. The country is also facing major difficulties with the shrinking of natural gas exportations, the lack of dollar reserves, and low economic growth. 

Finally,  Ecuador probably faces the most concerning situation: its economy is in recession (-1.5% in 2024); it faces a major energy crisis caused by droughts (most of it depends on water sources); its politics is quite unstable, especially because it has declared war against the drug cartels. 

First, it is important to identify the current Egyptian situation of each one of the criteria regarding December 2024: 

EGX 30: -2,1% 

Inflation: +24%

External debts: not found 

Secondly, the causes of the crisis must be addressed. Among other reasons, the economic turmoil is caused by a permanent deficit in the trade balance, which causes a lack of international exchanges, which leads to international funding, and finally, to the increase of public debt and inflation. 

The international trade "zeitgeist", however, is not favorable to Egypt. Under the new presidency of Donald J. Trump, the United States has been taking measures that, at least in the short run, will undermine global international trade as protectionism becomes fashionable again. Importation fares are very detrimental to the betterment of the Egyptian trade balance. The North American assistance to Egypt, however, was not included in the broad cut from January 2025.

With that being said, I believe that the most likely criterion to be resolved until January 2026 is the inflation rate above 50%. This might happen because of the bad horizon for the international trade deficit and the lack of a "face the crisis mode" by the Egyptian government as it is happening in Argentina now, for example.

From October 1st to December 31st, 2024, there have already been 29 cases, which indicates an average of approximately 10 cases/month. If this number remains, there will be 120 cases until September 30, 2025. 

Since the German elections will take place in February 2025, the number of disinformation cases will tend to increase in the following month. After that, it is reasonable to think that the average number will drop to 10 or a little below from March on. 

In addition, the rise of new AI tools, Elon Musk's support for the AfD, and the brink of a Russian victory in Ukraine giving the country more headspace to interfere in foreign domestic politics, indicate a tendency toward more, not less, foreign interference. 

Therefore, I believe the number of identified cases will be higher than 90 for the indicated period.