RAND Forecasting Initiative

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 02, 2024 10:41AM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	5%	-3%	-2%
No	98%	95%	+3%	+2%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 03, 2024 08:00AM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	62%	Sep 3, 2024 to Mar 3, 2025	Oct 3, 2024	55%	+7%	-1%
No	38%	Sep 3, 2024 to Mar 3, 2025	Oct 3, 2024	45%	-7%	+1%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 03, 2024 08:10AM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	52%	33%	+19%	+3%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	72%	40%	+32%	-10%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 03, 2024 03:44PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	54%	43%	+11%	+6%
No	46%	57%	-11%	-6%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 03, 2024 04:17PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 3, 2024 to Mar 3, 2025	Oct 3, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 3, 2024 to Mar 3, 2025	Oct 3, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 09, 2024 05:11PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025	Oct 9, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025	Oct 9, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:09PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025	Oct 12, 2024	1%	-1%	+1%
No	100%	Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025	Oct 12, 2024	99%	+1%	-1%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	14%	9%	+5%	-2%
Su-35 fighter jets	2%	7%	-5%	-1%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	98%	99%	-1%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Sep 12, 2024 to Sep 12, 2025	Dec 12, 2024	5%	-1%	+1%
No	96%	Sep 12, 2024 to Sep 12, 2025	Dec 12, 2024	95%	+1%	-1%

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