Affirming.
-0.016544
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
87
Forecasts
88
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 28 | 510 | 87 | 767 |
| Comments | 5 | 35 | 208 | 120 | 288 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 17 | 59 | 27 | 84 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 24 | 261 | 88 | 462 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-1%)
Togo
20%
(-1%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?
Updating for passage of time. 9.5 months left.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
5%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
74%
(-6%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
20%
(+5%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
1%
(+1%)
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?
Similarly to the Russia Security Risk question, I am moving to higher warmth numbers toward Ukraine due to it becoming even more of a victim due to the recent developments. 11 months to go.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
same as before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
2%
(-1%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
25%
(-17%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
53%
(+3%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
20%
(+15%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
I can't find the source again but I've seen some poll across many European countries done recently and it indicated that Russian advances in Ukraine coupled with Trump's perceived hostility toward EU/NATO induced a shift toward more people viewing Russia and a military threat to their country. Shifting toward higher numbers. 11 months to go until the next report.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
same
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
(-4%)
Yes
79%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating on my expectation that Russia will refuse the 30 days ceasefire to which Ukraine has agreed. Here is Putin in June 2024, telling about Russian conditions for a ceasefire.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Putin decides to make a 180 degree turn.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
0%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming
Files
Why might you be wrong?
n/a
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Yes
96%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating for passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
Why do you think you're right?
To follow up on @ctsats post below. Putin did speak on this today. Different media spin it in different ways ("Putin agrees", "Putin 'agrees'", "Putin is unlikely"). Judge for yourself.
My take is that this is a polite way to say "no" without seeming obstinate. As such, I am affirming for now.
Why might you be wrong?
same as before