RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:21AM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

As of Nov 12, 2024 07:22PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 05:02PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	57%	-27%	+8%
No	70%	Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	43%	+27%	-8%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 02:11AM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	52%	38%	+14%	-7%
No	48%	62%	-14%	+7%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 02:13AM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	1%	9%	-8%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	4%	6%	-2%	+0%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 02:23AM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	10%	16%	-6%	-4%
Bolivia	20%	22%	-2%	-2%
Ecuador	12%	12%	+0%	-2%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	32%	19%	+13%	+1%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	60%	72%	-12%	-1%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	8%	8%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 05:05PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	14%	13%	+1%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	51%	51%	+0%	-4%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	34%	34%	+0%	+3%
More than or equal to 80	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 08:29PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 09:15PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	18%	8%	+10%	-6%
No	82%	92%	-10%	+6%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 04:29PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	5%	+5%	+0%
No	90%	95%	-5%	+0%

DimaKlenchin

Dima Klenchin

About: