Perhaps this low likelihood is an indicator of a blind spot I have in hopes that things will deescalate. Israel will retaliate within the next 30 days and of course these targets are on their menu of options.
0.719214
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 83 | 81 | 89 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 29 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Nov 19, 2024 02:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(+20%)
Yes
Oct 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025
75%
(-20%)
No
Oct 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+4%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
5%
(+4%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Increasing slightly due to current conflict.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(+15%)
Yes
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
85%
(-15%)
No
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
Just read a CNN article that states that the US is confident that a middle attack on Israel is imminent. I didn’t think they would take that step but here we are, in the midst of a rapidly changing environment of hatred and retribution.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-10%)
Yes
100%
(+10%)
No
Absolutely not based on the current environment.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 1, 2024 03:19PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(-50%)
Yes
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
90%
(+50%)
No
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
Can you or do you declare war on a non-country?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
100%
No
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
At this juncture, there is no reason to believe he will flee Iran. Israel has no immediate plans to attack Iran directly and he would be safer in Iran than anywhere else on earth.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kharkiv
0%
(-2%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
Reduced my 2% projection for Kyiv. There simply is no time left in the seasonal opportunity period.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kharkiv
2%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
