An update to my previous 100% No prediction. A coup is possible but unlikely to be successful. Discussions related to his poor or declining health have diminished in the past year and the potential for a successful assassination attempt by a foreign government such as Ukraine are very unlikely as well.
0.046336
Relative Brier Score
80
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 15 | 80 | 72 | 80 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 9 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 15 | 28 | 26 | 28 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
The key words here are discovered according to the IAEA. Under the current geopolitical climate, there is no reason to believe that Iran would enable that discovery. Have they reached that threshold, likely, will they allow it to be discovered; doubtful.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
An update to my previous 100% No prediction. No benefits to any of these countries.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
0%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
No reason to believe that Russia has the capability to broaden its aggressive approach to military action. Their efforts in Ukraine are effectively stalled and Ukraine’s expansion into the Russian front has created the need for additional manpower that they simply don’t have the bandwidth to provide.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 9, 2024 to Sep 9, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 9, 2024 to Sep 9, 2025
Iran is not interested in a conflict with Israel and doesn’t have the allied support needed from Russia to make this a reality.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
1%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Russia does not have a surplus of these items in operational functionality to provide to Iran. The 1% chance for either is simply a token nod to the small possibility that Iran and Israel increase hostilities which both have backed away from in past 30 days.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(-5%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(+5%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
If this can be verified, the current environment is likely to promote stockpile growth and certainly not a decline.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025
An update to my previous 100% No prediction.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-5%)
Yes
Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025
100%
(+5%)
No
Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025
Iran doesn’t need any additional conflict in the region. Israel is their current threat and aggression towards the U. S. Doesn’t make sense. Despite their total hatred of U.S. policy, there is little reason for them to promote additional conflict in the region. Russia is tied up in a protracted “military action” and wouldn’t be inclined to create or support initiatives which may escalate into a world wide war.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025
An update to my previous 100% No prediction. This isn’t going to happen under the current geo-political landscape.
Files