17th
Accuracy Rank

SamIam

About:
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0.018406

Relative Brier Score

89

Forecasts

7

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 83 81 89
Comments 0 0 6 6 9
Questions Forecasted 0 0 27 27 29
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 5 5 7
 Definitions


New Badge
SamIam
earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
SamIam
made their 6th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 19, 2024 02:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25% (+20%)
Yes
Oct 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025
75% (-20%)
No
Oct 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025
Perhaps this low likelihood is an indicator of a blind spot I have in hopes that things will deescalate. Israel will retaliate within the next 30 days and of course these targets are on their menu of options.
Files
New Prediction
SamIam
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5% (+4%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
5% (+4%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Increasing slightly due to current conflict.
Files
New Prediction
SamIam
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15% (+15%)
Yes
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
85% (-15%)
No
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
Just read a CNN article that states that the US is confident that a middle attack on Israel is imminent. I didn’t think they would take that step but here we are, in the midst of a rapidly changing environment of hatred and retribution.
Files
New Prediction
Absolutely not based on the current environment.
Files
New Prediction
SamIam
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 1, 2024 03:19PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (-50%)
Yes
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
90% (+50%)
No
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
Can you or do you declare war on a non-country?
Files
New Prediction
SamIam
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
100%
No
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
At this juncture, there is no reason to believe he will flee Iran. Israel has no immediate plans to attack Iran directly and he would be safer in Iran than anywhere else on earth.
Files
New Prediction
Reduced my 2% projection for Kyiv. There simply is no time left in the seasonal opportunity period.
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
SamIam
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

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