45th

Accuracy Rank

sigis

Sigitas Keras

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Retired quant/trader

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Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM	What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?	-0.00001
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM	Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?	-0.000161
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM	In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)	-0.005693
Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM	Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?	-0.000058
Jan 9, 2025 02:00PM	Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2024 and Jan 9, 2025)	0.017804
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?	-0.000004
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	-0.007113
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?	-0.000012
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?	0.0
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?	-0.000006
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?	-0.000001
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?	0.0
Apr 2, 2024 03:00PM	Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?	0.002792
Mar 3, 2024 05:00PM	Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?	0.0
Feb 26, 2024 05:00PM	Will Hezbollah launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 26, 2024 and Feb 26, 2024)	-0.050874