Time decay
-0.005693
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
114
Forecasts
10
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 40 | 171 | 114 | 179 |
| Comments | 0 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 10 |
| Questions Forecasted | 6 | 26 | 49 | 32 | 52 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
94%
(+1%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
2%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(-10%)
Yes
75%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
AAPL 69%
NVDA 25%
MSFT 6%
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 24, 2025 to Sep 24, 2026
93%
(0%)
No
Mar 24, 2025 to Sep 24, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
0%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-1%)
Togo
19%
(-1%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?
Time decay
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
38%
(+3%)
Yes
Mar 20, 2025 to Sep 20, 2025
62%
(-3%)
No
Mar 20, 2025 to Sep 20, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting closer to the crowd.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(+23%)
Yes
65%
(-23%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
AAPL 58
NVDA 35
MSFT 7
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
Got it, thanks! Correlations is a neat idea.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Less than 30 days
20%
30 days
5%
31-60 days
5%
61-90 days
50%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
I think my first assumption is that if we get to a ceasefire, it is likely to hold, so 91+ bucket gets a high weight. With so much focus on an initial 30 day ceasefire, I am going to give a relatively high weight to the first 2 buckets. Once we get past 30 days, 31-60 and 61-90 both seem unlikely stopping points, so relatively low chance.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Weekly update
Why might you be wrong?