Forecasted Questions
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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 09:11PM
(1 month ago)
Feb 27, 2025 09:11PM
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 6% | -4% | +1% |
| No | 98% | 94% | +4% | -1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 12:54AM
(29 days ago)
Mar 3, 2025 12:54AM
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Latvia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 12:54AM
(29 days ago)
Mar 3, 2025 12:54AM
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 1% | 7% | -6% | +1% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 12:54AM
(29 days ago)
Mar 3, 2025 12:54AM
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 9% | -1% | -2% |
| No | 92% | 91% | +1% | +2% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 12:58AM
(29 days ago)
Mar 3, 2025 12:58AM
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 28% | 37% | -9% | -1% |
| No | 72% | 63% | +9% | +1% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 01:05AM
(29 days ago)
Mar 3, 2025 01:05AM
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +1% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 4, 2025 11:14PM
(27 days ago)
Mar 4, 2025 11:14PM
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Mar 4, 2025 to Mar 4, 2026 | Jun 4, 2025 11:14PM | 8% | -4% | +0% |
| No | 96% | Mar 4, 2025 to Mar 4, 2026 | Jun 4, 2025 11:14PM | 92% | +4% | +0% |
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 16, 2025 01:14PM
(15 days ago)
Mar 16, 2025 01:14PM
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025 | Apr 16, 2025 01:14PM | 2% | +2% | -2% |
| No | 96% | Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025 | Apr 16, 2025 01:14PM | 98% | -2% | +2% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(12 hours from now)
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(12 hours from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 16, 2025 01:15PM
(15 days ago)
Mar 16, 2025 01:15PM
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | Mar 16, 2025 to Mar 16, 2026 | Jun 16, 2025 01:15PM | 8% | +3% | -1% |
| No | 89% | Mar 16, 2025 to Mar 16, 2026 | Jun 16, 2025 01:15PM | 92% | -3% | +1% |
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2025 01:43AM
(12 days ago)
Mar 20, 2025 01:43AM
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 9% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 10% and 19%, inclusive | 5% | 5% | +0% | -1% |
| Between 20% and 29%, inclusive | 80% | 81% | -1% | +0% |
| Between 30% and 39%, inclusive | 15% | 13% | +2% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 40% | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |