MD

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been extremely expensive. The idea that they would invade a NATO member state and likely trigger Article 5, so long as the Ukraine war is ongoing (or even regardless), is just very improbable.

Russia needs all the soldiers they can get in Europe. It's hard to imagine they would risk understaffing their war efforts in Ukraine in the name of influence in Africa at present.

The US clearly does not want escalation in the region. Things may change if there is a US regime change, but that would not be enough to radically change the outcome within six months of today.

The Israeli public seems largely to push for this, but Israeli politics don't make it desirable for the ruling coalition. I think there's a meaningful minority chance that the ruling coalition fragments and new leadership pursues a negotiated pause.

I continue to believe this is unlikely; there are no indications to the contrary.

Updating to a lower probability based on my prior rationale.

Nvidia's position appears fairly precarious on fundamentals, and investors seem to be catching on. I imagine Nvidia will see a price decline, not increase.

Increasing skepticism about AI bubble in the tech press.