52nd
Accuracy Rank

Thomas-Reich

Thomas Reich
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-0.141627

Relative Brier Score

8

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

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Forecasts 0 0 8 8 8
Comments 0 0 1 1 1
Questions Forecasted 0 0 8 8 8
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 1 1
 Definitions
New Prediction

I believe the odds for this are less than 50%

Especially as 30 days are a long time. 


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New Prediction
Thomas-Reich
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Mar 16, 2024 05:29AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
75%
Yes
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
25%
No
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024

I think thingsv will progress for the worse in the Middle East. Israel is unlikely to reduce its actions. 

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New Prediction

Unlikely that will happen in next few weeks. 

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New Prediction

Eventually they will do that but not that soon. 

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New Prediction

While it’s unlikely Microsoft will close the lab now for political reasons. China is too big a market. It’s possible this can happen as other companies close factories. 

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New Prediction

The price is way below now and there is potential for another tradewar but not likely in the next 4 months. 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I don’t think the platforms are interested to show how much of their content is AI generated. Human users may be less inclined to interact there. 

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Why might you be wrong?

Politicians could pressure this to reduce the impact of non desired content. 

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My First Question

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Active Forecaster

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