I think thingsv will progress for the worse in the Middle East. Israel is unlikely to reduce its actions.
-0.141627
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Decoding Disinformation,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 16, 2024 05:29AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
75%
Yes
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
25%
No
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Unlikely that will happen in next few weeks.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Eventually they will do that but not that soon.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
While it’s unlikely Microsoft will close the lab now for political reasons. China is too big a market. It’s possible this can happen as other companies close factories.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
The price is way below now and there is potential for another tradewar but not likely in the next 4 months.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
92%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I don’t think the platforms are interested to show how much of their content is AI generated. Human users may be less inclined to interact there.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Politicians could pressure this to reduce the impact of non desired content.
Files
New Badge
I believe the odds for this are less than 50%
Especially as 30 days are a long time.