I think thingsv will progress for the worse in the Middle East. Israel is unlikely to reduce its actions.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 16, 2024 05:29AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
75%
Yes
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
25%
No
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Unlikely that will happen in next few weeks.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Eventually they will do that but not that soon.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
While it’s unlikely Microsoft will close the lab now for political reasons. China is too big a market. It’s possible this can happen as other companies close factories.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
The price is way below now and there is potential for another tradewar but not likely in the next 4 months.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
92%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I don’t think the platforms are interested to show how much of their content is AI generated. Human users may be less inclined to interact there.
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Why might you be wrong?
Politicians could pressure this to reduce the impact of non desired content.
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I believe the odds for this are less than 50%
Especially as 30 days are a long time.