Confirmed previous forecast
0.018758
Relative Brier Score
19
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
65%
(0%)
No
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
0%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(-20%)
Yes
Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025
50%
(+20%)
No
Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025
Lkely to keep it as an undeclared war
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-3%)
Yes
93%
(+3%)
No
Time is running out and situation is not improving
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It is unlikely Iran will leave IAEA check anything this year, even less sites that may have this kind of material.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
In the case Iran is forced to change political regimen or is too damaged by a war, this may allow inspections. But even then, it is unlikely that everything can be organized in such a short notice.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 14, 2024 12:41AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
Yes
Aug 14, 2024 to Feb 14, 2025
65%
No
Aug 14, 2024 to Feb 14, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Israel is in an uncontrollable attack fervor these days, so they may decide to attack strategic sites in Iran.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe Israel will become more reasonable and only use responses of a similar scale than what they respond to.
Files