TrishBytes

From all the countries in this list, the two that could resolve for yes would be Somalia and Comoros.

In October 2021, reports indicated that Israel and Comoros were engaged in discussions to establish full diplomatic relations, facilitated by the United States. Despite these talks, no official agreement has been reached to date.

In September 2023, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen expressed intentions to pursue normalization with Somalia, though this initiative faced opposition within Israel's National Security Council.  While there have been indirect communications and low-profile diplomatic engagements, Somalia has not yet formalized diplomatic relations with Israel.

Both countries also attended the 2023 Negev Forum.

INot sure how reliable this poll is, but approval ratings for Putin remain high, at 80% or higher: https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/. Fully possible that people with the means who disagree would have  left the country, and those without would not share their honest opinion.

+ It is hilarious (and telling?) that there's a Wikipedia page for Claims of Vladimir Putin's incapacity and death, two in 2023, and several in 2022. There were reports in late 2024 of "uncontrollable twitching" and Parkinson's: https://www.livemint.com/news/world/putins-leg-twitching-fuels-health-speculation-amid-parkinson-s-rumors-11733169426305.html

But it is hard to base a forecast off of speculation.

Low probability, high risk.

I see the following factors at play:

Russia has a history of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, such as NotPetya (2017) and attacks on Ukraine’s power grid (2015, 2016). However, these have mostly been below the threshold of war. Cyber operations are often used for disruption, espionage, and signaling rather than outright kinetic effects. A NATO country could experience cyber-induced blackouts or transportation disruptions, but Moscow would likely calibrate the impact to avoid full-scale conflict, especially to avoid disrupting the Trump administration's willingness to negotiate a peace deal that's favorable to Russia.

+The decision to launch an attack with kinetic consequences could trigger NATO’s collective defense clause (Article 5), making such an escalation unlikely unless Russia feels cornered.

However, an attack that intentionally causes casualties would mark a significant shift in doctrine. More likely are ransomware-style disruptions, GPS jamming, or cyber-enabled sabotage designed to create economic pressure rather than provoke direct military retaliation.

US funds to Taiwan have been unfrozen!

https://www.npr.org/2025/02/27/g-s1-50823/trump-china-taiwan-foreign-security-aid

"The U.S. government has quietly unfrozen about $870 million in security assistance programs for Taiwan, according to two officials familiar with the matter, who were not authorized to speak publicly.

It is a significant move amid dramatic cuts to foreign assistance by the Trump administration, reductions which have faced a flurry of legal challenges. On Wednesday evening, just hours before a midnight deadline, the Supreme Court's chief justice paused a federal judge's order to disperse some $2 billion in frozen foreign aid."

That said, China continues to conduct drills around Taiwan, and the Trump administration is unlikely to provide a hard security assurance to Taipei.

I still don't see China deliberately provoking the US with an all-out invasion/blockade of Taiwan, perhaps there's a hope that the US will remain preoccupied at home?

Nvidia stocks dipped due to Trump proposing tariffs on Europe + their earning remain strong but profit margins are narrowing as  costs (especially for data centers) go up.

Source: https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-trump-tariffs-stock-market-what-to-know-today-54b78010

"For the January quarter, Nvidia reported adjusted earnings of 89 cents a share and revenue of $39.3 billion, both ahead of expectations. For the current quarter, Nvidia provided a revenue forecast range with a midpoint of $43.0 billion. That’s higher than the consensus of $42.1 billion."

"Profit margins are narrowing because making its newest data center equipment costs more, and Nvidia is also spending more. Quarterly operating expenses rose 48%, and CFO Colette Kress said that was largely because of bigger pay packages for its growing workforce."

Holding steady at 30-70 purely on basis of long term projections of Open-RAN market growth.

Holding steady with a non-zero chance of "yes", purely to account for unexpected policy changes. 

I'm sure Huawei execs are seeing the failure of openRAN vendors as assurance that the political bluster around O-RAN is not backed by market uptake.

See: https://www.lightreading.com/5g/ericsson-and-nokia-flaunt-cash-as-open-ran-pack-struggles

"Mavenir, a company seen as the main US alternative to Ericsson and Nokia, was reported to have missed interest payments on debt. In October, S&P Global warned it faced imminent default or restructuring. Sources subsequently indicated Mavenir was laying off staff at its RAN business and had lost John Baker, the senior vice president of business development and its main RAN spokesperson. His departure was confirmed by Mavenir, which had no comment about wider staff cuts.

Two years earlier it had been Parallel Wireless, another US RAN developer, that was suffering. In July 2022, the company was widely reported to have made hefty cuts after failing to advance against incumbent suppliers. Developments prompted Yago Tenorio, then head of network strategy for Vodafone, to express sadness about the fate of some vendors touting "open RAN," which allows operators to combine different suppliers at the same mobile site.

"We were working together well with them and particularly the name that no one mentions now is Parallel Wireless," Tenorio, now chief technology officer of Verizon, told Light Reading in October 2023. "They were very prominent at the beginning and now they are not a reference anymore."

Market shrinkage has not helped. Overall RAN sales fell 11% in 2023, to about $40 billion, said researchers at Omdia, a sister company to Light Reading. At the midpoint of its most recently published data, it was anticipating another contraction of 12.5% last year, to $35 billion. Operators in many countries paused spending after their initial 5G rollouts did not lead to meaningful improvements in sales or profitability. There have been relatively few opportunities for new entrants.

Last March, another US company called Airspan Networks filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after revenues plunged 54% in 2023, to about $77.6 million. Despite cutting heavily into R&D and other costs, Airspan was left with a net loss of $78.9 million. Under a restructuring agreement, it announced plans to go private and secure up to $95 million in equity financing.

The most recent notable loser is Comba Telecom, a Hong Kong-based maker of radio equipment. In a profit warning issued last week, Comba said it expected to record a loss of HK$600 million ($77 million) for 2024, compared with a profit of HK$6.7 million ($860,000) the year before, blaming delays by global telecom operators to network construction. The update provides further evidence the 5G slowdown also affects China, where Comba is thought to generate most of its revenues."