Question: Why are forecasters so low on "Non-U.S. Entity?" China may surpass the U.S in progress, it's a close competition.
0.07015
Relative Brier Score
285
Forecasts
169
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 40 | 309 | 285 | 518 |
| Comments | 5 | 49 | 663 | 639 | 798 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 15 | 37 | 35 | 42 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 6 | 176 | 169 | 235 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Comment
Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?
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New Comment
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 14, 2025 to Jun 14, 2027
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 14, 2025 to Jun 14, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+95%)
Yes
0%
(-95%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Backfire! 20+ killed.
Reuters - Trump says Thailand and Cambodia agree to 'cease all shooting'
"This week's unrest has killed at least 20 people, with more than 260 wounded, according to tallies by both countries, which have blamed each other for reigniting the conflict. Hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced on both sides of the border."
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Why might you be wrong?
.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+3%)
Yes
10%
(-3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
87%
(-9%)
Yes
13%
(+9%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
NATO members might have some difficulty financially, as the US administration is requiring them to pay fees by 2027. However, if NATO members can't do this, some might procure some additional defense, as the US threatens to stop supporting NATO
US threatens withdrawal from NATO if Europe doesn't take defense lead by 2027 • FRANCE 24 English
https://youtu.be/uJ8rjctWzCQ?si=T2wdfPE61iGEbJNf
Is Europe rearming for war with Russia? | About That
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Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+4%)
Yes
95%
(-4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Somebody blinked.
Lowering probability slightly.
https://thediplomat.com/2025/12/thai-and-cambodian-troops-again-clash-along-disputed-border/
https://thainewsroom.com/2025/12/07/2-thai-soldiers-injured-in-fierce-clash-at-border/
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Why might you be wrong?
The situation is volatile and tensions are escalated.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(+24%)
Yes
75%
(-24%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I'm going to scale down a bit - Pathchat could be positioned and submitted as a diagnostic assistant, which would be less risky. Further, Modella (owner of PathChat) may have already submitted to the FDA, privately.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.07814
https://www.aha.org/lettercomment/2025-12-01-aha-letter-fda-ai-enabled-medical-devices
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Modella is still in research mode and has not privately submitted.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
96%
(+23%)
Yes
4%
(-23%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Raising on: Putin showing little as far as compromise Re: Ukraine.
https://time.com/7338115/putin-issues-warning-to-europe-russia-ukraine-peace-talks/
"The Russian leader also took aim at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s European allies, who have expressed support for helping Kyiv achieve a dignified peace deal. Accusing Europe of hindering the U.S.-led negotiations, Putin claimed they had put forward demands that are “absolutely unacceptable” to Russia and had obstructed the “entire peace process.” He argued that European governments have “no peaceful agenda.”
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Why might you be wrong?
.
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