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Abigail-Becker

Abigail Becker
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Abigail-Becker
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
Yes
Sep 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2025
75%
No
Sep 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2025

Even if they do continue to fight Hezbollah, I don't think a war will be officially declared (it will be considered a defensive effort)

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LogicCurve
made a comment:

Hi Abigail,  it appears the official declaration of "war" is not the only type of resolution.  The more details section states

Resolution Criteria:  

This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Israel declares war on Hezbollah or makes an equivalent statement (e.g., announcing the opening of a new front against Hezbollah or officially authorizing “significant military steps” 
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