39th
Accuracy Rank

dockterx

Dr. Ecks
About:

Computer science dropout. Practicing physician. Pseudo intellectual dilettante. Breakfast aficionado.

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2024 Season Stats

-0.0004

Relative Brier Score
174100-101234567891011
Questions Forecasted
1723000.511.522.53
Scored Questions

14

Forecasts

10

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
LessMoreDecJanFebMarSuMoTuWeThFrSa
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 7 41 27 41
Comments 0 7 38 25 38
Questions Forecasted 0 4 15 12 15
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 12 2 12
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
Putin holds the best cards. Trump is only going to help if he gets a cut. Zelensky is getting desperate but not desperate enough.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe the latest drama isn't as bad as it seems.
Files
New Badge
dockterx earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
dockterx made their 10th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
9% (-7%)
Yes
91% (+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

It's not just Deepseek anymore.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Apple could falter.

Files
New Badge
dockterx earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Feb 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
dockterx made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
0% (0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
47% (-4%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
53% (+4%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?

Ditto.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Ditto again.

Files
New Prediction
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
dockterx made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
0% (-4%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
51% (-4%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
49% (+8%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?

Shifting to historical trend and margin balancing.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Nature of threat has evolved.

Files
New Prediction
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
dockterx made their 9th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
16% (+4%)
Yes
84% (-4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Apple should remain the vanguard.
Files
Why might you be wrong?

Investors don't care what I think should happen.

Files
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
dockterx made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9% (+5%)
Yes
Feb 17, 2025 to Feb 17, 2026
91% (-5%)
No
Feb 17, 2025 to Feb 17, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Latest US-Israel threats directed towards Iran.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

It's just figurative hot air from politicians until it's literally hot air from explosions.

Files
New Prediction
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
dockterx made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
4% (-11%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
55% (-4%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
41% (+15%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?

Retuning to recent EU rumblings regarding US security rhetoric.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

This adjustment reflects more geopolitical than direct military threat.

Files
New Badge
dockterx earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

 
Files
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